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Impact Evaluation of the RAIO Policing Program

Strengthening Police Institutions2023-2024State of CearáFinished
Project
Rondas e Ações Intensivas e Ostensivas (RAIO) Program.

Description

The project aimed to evaluate the impact of the expansion of the Rondas e Ações Intensivas e Ostensivas (RAIO) program of the Ceará Military Police, a specialized force focused on rapid patrolling with high-powered motorcycles and high-caliber firearms. The research involved a quantitative analysis of crime indicators and a household survey to understand the population’s perception of police performance, comparing RAIO officers with conventional military police. This survey included visual experiments using images of officers in both uniforms, with or without motorcycles and long guns, to identify which attributes the population values most regarding their sense of security and trust in police performance. For the empirical analysis, the fact that RAIO was expanded to municipalities in phases was used, allowing researchers to identify whether there is a systematic effect on crime reduction in municipalities once they receive this type of policing.

Project
Visit to the Public Security Research and Strategy Superintendence of Ceará.

Results

The study found a significant reduction in homicides, with an average decrease of 1.3 cases per municipality per month, and 17.2 fewer robberies per month following the establishment of RAIO bases. A decline in the number of arrests was also observed, suggesting that the effect is driven more by deterrence than by incapacitation of offenders. Additionally, the perception survey indicated that the motorcycle is the main attribute valued by the population for enhancing the sense of security and effectiveness of RAIO, followed by the use of long firearms. The RAIO uniform was identified as the key factor in reducing perceptions of abuse and corruption compared to conventional military police.

20%in the reduction of Property Violent Crimes
13%in the reduction of Lethal and Intentional Violent Crimes
9%in theft reduction